Montgomery to rebound vs. struggling Reds offense
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We had a solid bounce-back day on the diamond, winning two out of three of our best bets Tuesday.
Let's take a look at a few plays worth targeting Wednesday night as we set our sights on a perfect card.
Jordan Montgomery: Over 15.5 outs
Montgomery's off to a nice start with the Diamondbacks considering he signed late and was thrust into action several weeks into the season. He's completed six or more innings in two of three starts, failing to do so last time out against the powerhouse Dodgers.
Los Angeles leads the majors in batting average, OBP, slugging, barrels, and walk rate against lefties, so it's no coincidence Montgomery struggled.
He finds himself in an excellent get-right spot against the Reds. Opposing starting pitchers regularly last deep into games against them, and the Reds also have a miserable offense against left-handed arms.
They rank dead last in batting average versus left-handed pitchers and sit 26th in xwOBA. The Reds don't hit for much power and put a lot of balls in the dirt, which bodes well for a ground-ball starter like Montgomery.
Odds: -130 (playable to -150)
Carlos Rodón: Under 17.5 outs
Rodón's having a nice bounce-back season for the Yankees but still hasn't been overly efficient chewing up innings. He's averaged 15.7 outs per start while going under 17.5 in four of seven starts.
Two of the successful starts came against the Athletics and Marlins, who both average 3.7 runs or fewer per game. Not exactly stiff competition.
As poorly as the Astros have played, their offense is dangerous - particularly against left-handed pitching. They're hitting .270 against lefties (sixth) and have 13 homers (fifth) against them on the year. Houston also owns a 16.3% strikeout rate versus left-handed arms, the lowest mark in the majors.
The Astros hit for contact and power, and they've shown great discipline against lefties. Their lineup also features a lot of right-handed bats. Rodón owns a .347 xwOBA against righties over the past month and has given up a homer every 20 at-bats, which is a high clip.
The Yankees needed only two relievers Tuesday and didn't play Monday. Their bullpen should be well rested and ready to go as soon as Rodón runs into trouble, which Aaron Boone is unlikely to let him work through.
Chris Paddack: Under 1.5 walks
Paddack's displayed fantastic control over his last few starts. In the past four games, he's walked only three batters and owns a sparkling 2.9% walk rate.
He hasn't walked a single righty in that time, which is important since the Mariners are projected to have six or seven right-handed batters in their lineup.
Seattle's relatively good at drawing walks. Its numbers have tailed off lately, though, with six of the past nine righties it's faced going under their walk total.
Given how well Paddack has controlled the zone lately, I don't see him being the one to get the Mariners back on track.
Odds: -140 (playable to -155)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.