Nuggets vs. Timberwolves betting preview

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The Timberwolves' profile keeps rising after their first series win since 2004.

Minnesota deserves credit for dismantling a team led by Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, but the Suns were dysfunctional and poorly constructed. Can the Wolves' success carry over to a second-round matchup against the Nuggets, or did their first-round series have more to do with the Suns' ineptitude?

The Wolves have the personnel to match up with the reigning champions and Western Conference favorites. Their roster boasts size, a clutch superstar, a towering defense, and stable role players - a championship recipe.

But their opponent has championship pedigree - and the deadliest duo in the sport: Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray outscored opponents by 15.3 points per 100 possessions when they shared the floor this season.

Minnesota's key to a potential win is limiting Jokic's impact. That starts with Defensive Player of the Year favorite Rudy Gobert.

Gobert is like a school bully, using his weak side rotations to terrorize smaller opponents who dare to drive through the lane. But it gets ugly when he's tasked with picking on someone his own size.

Jokic dominated Gobert this season, outmuscling and outsmarting the French big. In four games against the Wolves, Jokic averaged 33 points - seven higher than his season average.

Minnesota's defensive strategy in last year's playoffs and this year's regular season included cross-matches in which Naz Reid or Karl-Anthony Towns guard Jokic while Gobert floats around for extra rim protection. But Jokic's deceptively quick step and soft touch exposed those coverages, too. Towns committed 17 fouls in four games against the Suns and is too valuable offensively to get caught on Jokic for long stretches.

The Wolves, theoretically, have the frontcourt size and depth to compete with the Nuggets' desire to score around the rim, but Jokic is an unsolvable puzzle.

Jokic is a pass-first big who can generate any look he wants in single coverage. If Minnesota sends doubles, he'll find a cutting teammate. Using Gobert to guard non-shooter Aaron Gordon and serve as a floater essentially disguises a double-team. Gordon, however, excels in the dunker spot.

The Wolves' regular-season approach turned Jokic into a scorer. The Serbian averaged 4.3 assists against the Wolves, down from his 9.8 average on the campaign. Three of his six lowest assist totals came against Minnesota.

That leads us to valuable bets: Jokic to have the most points in the series (+155) and Murray to have the most assists (+800).

Shame on me for making it this far without mentioning Anthony Edwards, a 22-year-old cold-blooded assassin and Minnesota's driving force.

Denver will employ a group effort to contain Edwards, including sticking Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope on the dynamic guard. Edwards is talented enough to will the Wolves to the conference finals.

However, Minnesota's crunch-time offense is a concern, as the team only played one "clutch" game in the opening round. Clutch offense was one of the Wolves' regular-season weaknesses; they ranked in the league's bottom half, while the Nuggets were the NBA's best clutch team.

Every possession is crucial in the waning minutes of tight playoff games. Murray and Jokic's two-man game consistently generates quality looks. And, although Edwards is clutch, it's harder to trust the Wolves' entire group, which could cost them games.

Murray's health could pose a problem for Denver. Everyone remembers his game-winning shots, yet the Canadian shot 29% from three and 40% from the field in five games against the Lakers as he dealt with a calf injury.

The four rest days before Saturday's Game 1 should help, but Denver - the 4.5-point favorite - needs a healthy and efficient Murray against Minnesota.

Denver's offense relies on shots at the rim, but it still has to make threes at a high clip. The Nuggets have shot 30% from three in the playoffs, the third-worst among teams still playing. But they connected on 37% of their deep looks during the season, creating optimism that they're due for positive regression. But Minnesota allowed the third-fewest 3-point makes per game.

The Wolves' role players - Jaden McDaniels, Mike Conley, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker - proved their worth offensively. They all averaged double figures in the opening round. Minnesota could pull off the upset if that production continues.

The Wolves will be a perennial contender in the West, but sweeping the Suns doesn't mean they're ready to knock out the favorites. Minnesota doesn't have the pairing of Jokic and Murray in its tool kit. Until proven otherwise, that's the key to the championship.

Bet: Nuggets -1.5 games (+115)

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.